University of Kent atCanterbury October 1999 International Conflict Analysis Dr. Charles O. Lerche Office Hours (36 Blvd. De Triomphe, ground floor, 1st office on left): Tuesday 15:00 16:15, Wednesdays16:30 17:45, Thursdays 15:00 16:15 tel/fax: 087 226315, email: colerche@vub.ac.be,homepage: http://members.nbci.com/colerche Introduction This course focuses on conflict, andspecifically international conflict. To both specialists andlay persons conflict is central to international relations. Onewell-known scholar (K.J. Holsti) has even argued that the disciplineof international relations arose specifically in response to theproblem of war. The twentieth century has witnessed violentinternational conflict of unprecedented scope, intensity and varietyand we are all well aware today of such issues as ethnic conflicts,trade wars, arms races, etc More subtly, preparation for andprotection from violent conflict has had a broad impact on theinstitutions and quality of life in many societies, influencing thedevelopment of economies, cultures and political institutions. There are a great many ideas about war andconflict, and many widely held ideas are wrong or, at best partiallytrue. For instance, conflict is not always bad, and war is avoided bymost states most of the time. Hence, there is a real need forconceptual clarification in this subject area. Furthermore, despitecenturies of informed speculation and decades of rigorous empiricalresearch, a comprehensive understanding of the "causes of war"eludes us. Given the destructiveness of modern weapons and thecapacity acquired in the 20th century to annihilate muchof life on earth, this matter has become increasingly urgent.Research on conflict and war has nonetheless produced much new andrelevant information, has clarified how diverse the phenomena underinvestigation are and has generated many questions for furtherstudy. Thus, the analysis of international conflictis an ongoing enterprise with direct relevance to human survival.Though beginning students will encounter some abstractions andsome numbers, they should never forget they are dealing withsomething that matters in the "here and now". They willalso discover that even if the "big" questions are not yetresolved, things are known about conflict which could, ifsystematically applied, make a difference in the quality ofinternational life: for instance, repressing unhappy ethnicseparatists won’t work unless you have massive coercivecapabilities. To acquire a balanced perspective on thesevaried phenomenon one has to consider a number of perspectives.Students should, therefore, be exposed to theories and approachesderived from a number of disciplines, freely cross thenormative/empirical divide, have an opportunity to ponder theperennial ethical questions about war and reflect on the uniqueinsights of a Feminist analysis of international conflict. A study oftheory should, however, be complemented by a study of "practice".One needs to look at a variety of cases both to gain an understandingof conflicts as historical events and to assess the utility andvalidity of conceptual frameworks. Finally, the analysis ofinternational conflict should be future oriented we can’tprevent the wars of the past, but we might be able to stop ormoderate those which have yet to occur. Overview 1. Introduction to Conflict: Some definitionsApproaches to the Study of Conflict 2. Conflict and International Relations: Typesof International Conflict; Role of War in International Politics 3. Theories of International Conflict (I): Theevolution of thought about international conflict and war 4. Theories of International Conflict (II):Macrocosmic Theories of War; Economic Theories; The Scientific Studyof International Conflict 5. Understanding Communal/Identity Conflicts 6. War as a Moral Problem 7. Alternative Discourses of InternationalConflict: Feminism; Post-Modernism 8. A Few (More) Case Studies of War 9. Introduction to Conflict Resolution,Traditional Approaches to Conflict Management and Resolution (I) 10. Traditional Approaches to ConflictManagement and Resolution (II) 11.The Democratic Peace 12. Proventing Conflict: John Burton andHuman Needs Theory 13. Transforming Conflict: Reconciliation andReconstruction 14. (Preventing) The Conflicts of the 21stCentury Aims and Objectives To analyze means, among other things to"examine minutely the constitution of" and "toascertain the elements of". This course is designed to providestudents with the opportunity to examine international conflict(s) insome detail (if not minutely) and to introduce them to many (if notall) of its elements. Specifically, by the end of the course, it isexpected the student will: (1) understand conflict as a general socialphenomenon and process, and its role in international politics; (2) have a sense of the varietyand salience of the major types of international conflict; (3) have been introduced to themain scholarly approaches to the analysis of international conflict; (4) be aware of the varioustechniques of conflict management and resolution in internationalrelations; (5) have become familiar with a variety ofsources of information about international conflict and conflictresolution, including on-line sources. Teaching Method Like other courses in the Kent MA program, thiscourse is structured around a lecture and seminar format. There willbe one hour of lecture and one hour of seminar each week. Given thewide variety of material covered in the course, the lecture willserve to provide an overview of a topic, outlining its variousdimensions and highlighting important points in the reading. Theinstructor’s approach to the lecture will be semi-formal:i.e. each week’s topic(s) will be covered, but it may well bepossible to incorporate some student input (questions, answers,comments) along the way. The seminars are intended to be fullyinteractive. Ideally, they could be successful even if the instructorwere not present (though he plans to be!). Seminars will involve bothopen questions and discussion of subjects related to the week’stopic(s), and some structured learning tasks. Group learning can beone of the most stimulating aspects of higher education, but it isalso one of the most demanding for students. In an interactive groupthere is really no place to hide if you are not prepared. In otherwords the success of group learning of any kind falls as much on theshoulders of the students as it does the instructor. So, studentsshould decide before the first class to assume the followingresponsibilities: (1) to be up to date on reading and to reflect onwhat they have read; (2) to be ready to contribute to whatever grouplearning activity is scheduled; (3) to observe courtesy and bepatient in their interaction with each other this is not always easyin heated discussions of such things as violence, death or malechauvinism! Assessment The main written requirement for this course isone essay of (approximately) 2,000 words which should conform instyle and format to the guidelines provided by the Brussels Schoolfor the MA program. The essay will be due the evening of the lastclass meeting. In a course on "International ConflictAnalysis" it would seem logical that students should have theopportunity to analyze at least one international conflict. Also,since the course covers a variety of theories and approaches toconflict and conflict resolution, the essay should have atheoretical/conceptual component. Therefore, in preparing the essayeach student should: (1) Focus on some aspect of an internationalconflict, or an intra-state conflict with international implications Besides the "high-profile"inter-state conflicts (Note: remember we are not just talking aboutwars here!) most of the communal conflicts of recent years also fallinto this category; i.e. internal conflicts which have generated"threats to international peace and security" as defined inthe United Nations Charter, or which have created problems for theforeign policies of major states. In the case of an internal conflictyou may wish to highlight how it became "internationalized".Here is a representative, but by no means comprehensive list ofplaces with such conflicts: EUROPE: Albania, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Croatia &Serbia, Georgia, Russia, Chechnya, United Kingdom (Northern Ireland),Kosovo, etc MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: Algeria, Iran,Iraq, Israel, Sudan, Turkey, Yemen AFRICA: Angola, Burundi, Liberia, Rwanda,Congo, Sierra Leone, Sudan, South Africa (among others) ASIA: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma (Myanmar),Cambodia, India, Indonesia, East Timor, Korea, Philippines, SriLanka, Tajikistan THE AMERICAS: Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti,Mexico (Chiapas), Nicaragua, Peru (inter alia) (2) Select a theoretical perspective orperspectives to use in analyzing and explaining the conflict One strategy might be to contrast explanationsfrom diverse perspectives such as Realist, Marxist or Human Needstheories. You should make a case for the relevance and utility of theapproach chosen, on either epistemological, ethical or other groundsi.e. why use Realism rather than Marxism or Human Needs theory. (3) Identify all relevant parties to theconflict These would include (inter alia): thedirect participants, allies, international organizations, civilsociety organizations, etc Relevant individuals, such as leaders,should also be included. (4) Either: (a) For ongoing conflicts, trace themain events in the history of the conflict, summarize the causes ofthe conflict and the main areas of disagreement among the parties,and present a plausible scenario through which the conflict could beresolved involving various tools of conflict management andresolution: i.e. track one/track two diplomacy, mediation,arbitration, democratization, land exchange, cease fire,international conferences, etc (b) For "resolved" or"nearly-resolved" conflicts, summarize the mainevents in the history of the conflict, explain what moved it towardsresolution, analyze what worked and didn’t work duringresolution, explain what remains to be done and make a case for themost effective approaches to use to go further. If, however, students would rather writeon something other than the above, but relevant to the main concernsof the course, they should discuss the matter with the instructor. All essay topics should be submitted in writingwith a bibliography of at least five sources (books, articles, etc )by the fourth class meeting. Reading This is a subject area in which there is anenormous body of literature, and several extensive bibliographies canbe made available to students. However, for the purposes of thecourse two monographs and a Carnegie Foundation Report have beenselected as textbooks. (1) Seyom Brown, The Causes and Preventionof War 2nd ed. This is a concise overview of many of the mostimportant dimensions of war in international relations. It seeks toanswer the question: "How can the role of large-scale violencein human society be reduced?" The second edition focusesparticularly on post-Cold War international conditions. It isrelatively easy reading and is not too expensive. (2) John Stoessinger, Why Nations go to War7th ed. This book provides a variety of case studies ofinternational conflict, in a very limited amount of space. The authorpresents the salient facts of several major conflicts of the 20thcentury, and assesses them using a set of premises about the causesof war. You are not obliged to accept his thesis, but it should makefor some interesting discussions. NOTE: Though Stoessinger is assigned forTopic 8, students are advised to begin reading the book immediately(it’s good background for several of the topics). (3) Carnegie Commission on Preventing DeadlyConflict, Preventing Deadly Conflicthttp://www.ccpdc.org/frpub.htm This is the final report of a high profileCarnegie Foundation commission. The report is more pragmatic andpolicy-oriented than theoretical a very useful counterweight to someof the other reading! The report’s chapters don’t fitneatly into the course topic headings, but they are all relevant.Though it might take some time, students are advised to download thewhole report at once, or at least ASAP. Students are also advised todownload the Microsoft Word versions of the chapters since they haveall the figures listed in the contents. The three texts will be supplemented in therequired reading by other articles, chapters and material from theInternet. The texts and additional articles in hard copy will beavailable at the BSIS office, and URLs will be furnished for Internetmaterial. Students are, however, encouraged to purchase the twotextbooks. The instructor willalso circulate material to students by email, including news stories,web sites, working papers, etc This is to be considered as optionalreading, but will usually be worth at least a look. Important: Students are not obliged toaccept any of the views in the readings at face value. Rather theyare encouraged to think critically and to submit any text to carefulscrutiny. "Books are not made to be believed, butto be subjected to inquiry. When we consider a book, we mustn't askourselves what it says but what it means..." (from The Name ofthe Rose by Umberto Eco) A few (more) quotes to stimulate yourthought: " all I ask is that, in the midst of amurderous world, we agree to reflect on murder and to make a choice." Albert Camus "As long as there are sovereign nationspossessing great power, war is inevitable. There Albert Einstein "I have believed that the only way peacecan be achieved is through world government" Jawaharal Nehru "War is stupid and people arestupid." Boy George and Culture Club "War! What is it good for! Absolutelynothing!" Bruce Springsteen Topics 1. Introduction to Conflict The first week’s lecture introducesconflict as a subject area in international relations. Students willfind out that the terminology of international relations is quite"flexible", approaching in some cases the ideal of LewisCarroll’s Humpty Dumpty where "A word means anything I sayit does!". To get started, therefore, it is essential to definesome terms, and we will initially work out meanings for conflict,international conflict, war, ethnic conflict, violence and peace(others may be added to the list). Having established a starting point we willbriefly examine conflict as a social phenomenon. This is importantbackground for our focus on international conflict during the rest ofthe term.. Another discovery awaiting the beginning student is thedegree to which international relations has borrowed from otherfields, and here we get some idea of how conflict is understood inpsychology, sociology, anthropology, economics, political science andreligion. Reading Brown, Chapter 1 "Why People Fight",and Chapter 2 "Violence and Governance" Robert A. LeVine, "Anthropology and theStudy of Conflict" from Richard A. Falk and Samuel S. Kim(ed.s), The War System (photocopy) An overview of this discipline’sorientation to the subject Lewis A. Coser, "Some Social Functions ofViolence", from Falk and Kim (photocopy) A "classic" sociologicalanalysis Samuel S. Kim, "The Lorenzian Theory ofAggression and Peace Research: A Critique", from Falk and Kim(photocopy) A summary and critique of one of thebest known "theories" of aggression Mary E. Clark, "Aggressivity and Violence:An Alternative Theory of Human Nature", Peace and ConflictStudies, Volume 5 Number 1, June 1998 ,http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/clark.htm Another look at aggression as a causeof violence 2. Conflict and InternationalRelations Having now some idea of what conflict is or atleast what social scientists say it is we move on to situating it inthe context of international relations. This week’s lecture willtry to answer a number of questions: Why is international relations characterized byconflict? (just the basics) What functions does conflict have in theprocess of world politics? What types of conflicts are there in worldpolitics? In seeking answers to these questions, it isimportant (once again) to bear in mind the distinction betweenconflict and violent conflict, or between war and other types ofconflict. It may well be that some forms of conflict are, on balance,functional and some dysfunctional (or potentially so) for the statessystem. Reading Brown, Chapter 3 "War and Reasons ofState" Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society,Chapter 8 "War and International Order" (photocopy) One of the best known assessments ofthe place of war in international "society" Evan Luard, International Society,Chapter 9 "Conflict" (photocopy) A summary of this author’sextensive work on the subject Daniel S. Papp, Contemporary InternationalRelations 3rd ed, Chapter 12 "War, Peace, andViolence", pp. 565 574 "Typologies of InternationalConflict" (photocopy) One typology of conflicts Abdu’l-Aziz Said, Charles O. Lerche Jr.,Charles O. Lerche III, Concepts of International Politics inGlobal Perspective 4th ed., Chapter 7 "Conflictand Conflict Resolution", pp. 119 126 "The Nature ofConflict" (photocopy) Another typology Johan Galtung, The True Worlds, Chapter5 "The War System", pp. 179 -- 186 "On the Use ofDirect Violence" (photocopy) A classic bit of "Galtungianreasoning" brief, but requires your full attention 3. Theories of InternationalConflict (I) Now we are ready to plunge into the many waysinternational conflict has been analyzed. This is too big a topic tocover in one lecture, so the subject has been divided into two. Thefirst lecture we will look at what thinkers down through the ageshave said about this question. This is important since contemporarythinking on international conflict, particularly in the West, isinfluenced more than is generally acknowledged by "giants"of Western thought such as St. Augustine or Friedrich Hegel. In trying to get some historic perspective onthe subject it is also important to understand the impact ofChristianity on Western thinking on war and peace. Therefore, we willintroduce the "just war" tradition at this point, andreturn to consider its contemporary relevance later. We will alsodiscuss the emergence and juxtaposition of "pacifist" and"bellicist" thinking about international conflict. Reading Jean Bethke Elshtain, Women and War,Chapter 2 "The Discourse of War and Politics: From the Greeks toToday" and Chapter 4 "The Attempt to Disarm Civic Virtue",pp. 121 140. (photocopy) An overview which puts women (back)into the picture F.H. Hinsley, Power and the Pursuit ofPeace: Theory and Practice in the History of Relations betweenStates, Chapter 1 "To the End of the Seventeenth Century"and Chapter 6 "The First Half of the Nineteenth Century" .(photocopy) Two selections form a classic workwhich highlights the role of international organization in thoughtabout war and peace. 4. Theories of InternationalConflict (II) In the 20th century scholars becameconcerned with explaining war itself, as opposed to studyingindividual wars. In this lecture will overview the most prominent ofthese "macrocosmic" approaches that highlight collectivecharacteristics of societies and the international system. We willalso consider specific aspects of international conflict such asinternational crises, balance of power dynamics and the role ofspecial characteristics of deterrence systems. In passing, selectedquantitative studies of international conflict processes will beintroduced. We will also cover economic, or what are alsocalled socio-economic, explanations of international conflict. Thoughthe extreme left is now marginal to politics, it would be a mistaketo underestimate the power of economic explanations of conflict,particularly in societies in transition. One can, for instance,construct a plausible economic explanation for each of the conflictsof the post-Cold War era (including Kosovo ever hear of the oil inthe Caucasus?). Whether economic factors are the cause, orjust one contributing cause is the real question. Reading Brown, Chapter 4 "Structural Factors,"Chapter 5 "Coercive Diplomacy," and Chapter 6 "MilitaryArsenals and Balances" Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George,Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Problems of Our Time 2nded., Chapter 13 "Deterrence" and Chapter 15 "CrisisManagement" (photocopy) Good overviews of these topics usingcases from diplomatic history "The Economic Foundations of Wars: ASoviet View" from Falk and Kim (photocopy) A brief statement of the underlyingeconomic dynamics of international conflict from a Marxist/Leninistpoint of view Stuart A. Bremer, "National Capabilitiesand War Proneness" in J. David Singer (ed.), The Correlatesof War: II, Testing Some Realpolitik Models (photocopy) A reasonably readable (really!) earlyquantitative study, which is indicative of the approach of theCorrelates of War project to the analysis of international conflict 5. Understanding Communal/IdentityConflicts Since the end of the Cold War conflictinvolving ethnic, religious and other sub-national groups hasreceived increasing attention in the media. Some have argued that itis now the principle form of conflict in the world, and that suchconflicts are the most likely causes of any further internationalwars. This is a very widespread phenomena, and has come to occupyboth scholars and practitioners of international relations. There has been a growing disenchantment from"below" with the institution of the nation-state, which hasfostered a renewed emphasis on ethnic and cultural identity andprecipitated many explosive confrontations. These developmentsrequire new explanations of the interactions between nations andnations, nations and states, and states and states in which ethnicnations play key roles. We will look at some conceptual frameworksand consider a few case studies. Reading Ralph R. Premdas, "Public Policy andEthnic Conflict", http://www.unesco.org/most/premdas.htm A very good introduction to many ofthe key issues Tarja Väyrynen, "Securitised EthnicIdentities and Communal Conflicts",http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/vayryn.html A slightly more abstract andpostmodern "take" on the subject Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 2"When Prevention Fails" Patrick Costello, "Historical Background",Accord: An International Review of Peace Initiatives: NegotiatingRights: The Guatemalan Peace Process.http://www.c-r.org/acc_guat/background.htm Background to the Guatemalan case(have a look at other articles in this number of the journal andother numbers available on the site) Elizabeth Nissan, "Historical Context",Accord: An International Review of Peace Initiatives:http://www.c-r.org/acc_sri/background.htm Background to Sri Lankan case. 6. War as a Moral Problem Can modern war be just? Is this even a relevantquestion? Does morality of any kind apply to international conflict?What sort of norms, if any, can or should be made effective in ananarchical states system? These are the types of questions we willconsider in this lecture. We have already looked at some earlierefforts to formulate answers to them. However, times change, andthinking about the content of norms relevant to internationalconflict also changes. Specifically, we will examine the "justwar" doctrine’s utility in a world of nuclear weapons,terrorism and ethnic conflict. Is St. Augustine’s reasoningabout war still helpful, or does our "globalized" worldrequire new approaches to the perennial questions of the morality ofviolence and conflict within and among states? In dealing with theseissues we will consider the moral dimensions of some conflict casestudies. Reading James Turner Johnson, Can Modern War beJust, Chapter 1 "The Utility of Just War Categories forMoral Analysis of Contemporary War" (photocopy) An assessment of the relevance of thevarious aspects of the "just war" tradition to contemporaryconflicts Michael Walzer, "The Theory of Aggression"in Steven Luper-Foy (ed.) Problems of International JusticeChapter 9. (photocopy) An example of ethical reasoning abouta fundamental issue in international conflict Robert L. Holmes, On War and Morality,Chapter Six "The Killing of Innocent Persons in Wartime"(photocopy) Another basic moral issue related toviolent conflict 7. Alternative Discourses ofInternational Conflict In this lecture we venture out into the teemingcurrents of "post-positivism". We will be obliged tobriefly discuss the background and basics of "post"approaches to international relations, and then move on to see whatscholars of this persuasion have contributed to the understanding ofwar and conflict The debate between positivists andpost-positivists has resulted in other "voices" being moreoften "heard" in the study of international relations, andprominent among these is the voice of feminist scholars. Anincreasing body of feminist writing challenges mainstream thinkers toappreciate the extent to which the conventional practice andscholarship of international relations highlight traditionally maleconceptions and priorities, ignore the main concerns of women andcontribute to their oppression. We will see that internationalconflict particularly lends itself to this kind of analysis. Reading Michael J. Shapiro, "Textualizing GlobalPolitics" from James Der Derian and Michael J. Shapiro,International/Intertextual Relations: Postmodern Readings of WorldPolitics . (photocopy) A short introduction to the postmodern"project" in international relations Timothy W. Luke, " ‘What’s Wrongwith Deterrence?’: A Semiotic Interpretation of NationalSecurity Policy" in Der Derian and Shapiro (photocopy) A semiotic (what?) analysis of aspectsof deterrence. Jean Bethke Elshtain, Women and War,Chaper 5 "Women: The Ferocious Few/The Noncombatant Many"(photocopy) An effort to make us reconsider wherewe think women fit into the war "text." 8. A Few (More) Case Studies ofWar This week we will look more closely at some ofthe major international conflicts of the 20th century.Since these events have been subject of hundreds (if not thousands)of studies, we will only focus on a few of their more challengingand, hopefully, interesting aspects. We will also consider JohnStoessinger’s approach to "Why Nations go to War", andevaluate it in comparison with the other theories and explanationsconsidered so far in the course. Though the instructor reserves the right tomodify the "menu", we will certainly have a look at WorldWar I, since there is still a fair amount of controversy in theliterature about why it happened at all. World War II poses anotherset of questions, as does the War in Vietnam. Also, like Stoessinger,we will not limit ourselves to Great Power conflicts, but have a lookat wars that broke out between states of the Global South as well. Tobring this first part of the course to a close, we will consider howinternational conflict has changed (if at all) over the course of thelast 100 years. Reading Stoessinger, entire book 9. Introduction to ConflictResolution, Traditional Approaches to Conflict Resolution andManagement (I) We’ve not finished with conflict, but weare now going to add another dimension -- really several dimensionsto our subject. We are going to look at what can be done aboutconflict: a complete field of study in itself. Though it isconvenient to lump all of this under the heading "conflictresolution" this is an extreme oversimplification. So, we willonce again start with some definitions: conflict resolution,conflict management, conflict prevention, conflict termination, peacekeeping, peace making, peace building. This won’t be the endof definitions, but it will be enough to get started. Then we will begin considering those "pacific"procedures for dealing with conflict, several of which involve thirdparties: negotiation, mediation, arbitration, adjudication. Inpassing we will examine some of what has been discovered aboutnegotiation and diplomacy in general in conflict situations,including the complementary roles of what is now known as "trackone" and "track two" diplomacy. Reading Dennis J.D. Sandole, "A ComprehensiveMapping of Conflict and Conflict Resolution: A Three PillarApproach", http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/sandole.htm An overview of conflict and conflictresolution (quite a good model and summary) R.J. Rummel, "Principles of ConflictResolution", from Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5, TheJust Peace http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/TJP.CHAP10.HTM A "checklist"of elements of conflict resolution Brown, Chapters 7, 8 & 9 start reading Brown doesn’t follow the sameorder of topics we will, but most of the topics for this week andnext are at least mentioned in these chapters Almost any textbook on international law willhave a chapter or section on the peaceful settlement of disputes, andyou are requested to find one and read it. Three examples, among manywould be: Michael Akehurst, A Modern Introduction to InternationalLaw (almost any edition); Gerhard von Glahn, Law AmongNations; and Henkin, Pugh, Schachter and Smit, InternationalLaw: Cases and Materials. 10. Traditional Approaches to ConflictResolution & Management (II) Continuing with our review of the traditionalapproaches to dealing with conflict, we will consider the role ofinternational law, collective security, peacekeeping, disarmament andarms control. These are all big subjects and our brief discussion ofeach will focus on two questions: 1. What are the basic aspects of eachprocedure/practice? 2. What are its strengths and weaknesses as anapproach to conflict resolution? Students may be surprised to learn that each ofthe methods considered has distinct advantages and disadvantages inthe current international context. None seems to offer acomprehensive solution, and all could be improved and refined. Basicto this entire discussion, of course, is the extent to which it isreasonable or relevant to expect that conflict resolution at theinternational level could achieve the level (at times) realized inadvanced democratic states. Reading Brown, Chapters 7, 8 & 9 finish reading Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 3"Operational Prevention", Chapter 4 "StructuralPrevention" and Chapter 6 "Preventing Deadly Conflict: TheResponsibility of the United Nations and Regional Arrangements" 11.The Democratic Peace At the end of the 18th centuryImmanuel Kant argued that countries with democratic, or open,political systems would be more peaceful than those withauthoritarian, or closed, political systems. This notion, whichraises the fundamental issue of the relationship between internalpolitical conditions and external conflict behavior has stimulatedmuch research. However, it was never proven to be unambiguously true.What has been demonstrated is that democratic states don’t tendto go to war with each other (well not too often so far). With the end of the Cold War and theacceleration of that process of political change known asdemocratization, the modern version of Kant’s thesisseemed to be in for a real world test. The modal (i.e. mostfrequently occurring ) type of national political system is now someform of democracy. Scholars have, therefore, been debating theplausibility of the "democratic peace" thesis, and we willreview the current "state of the art." Reading Spencer R. Weart , "Investigating thePuzzle of Democratic Peace"http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/WEART.CHAP.HTM A very interesting review ofhistorical evidence to support the democratic peace hypothesis R.J. Rummel, "The Democratic Peace: A NewIdea?" http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/POLSYS.ART.HTM One small sample from this remarkableweb site. Students should have a look around (but try not to getlost!) R.J. Rummel, Power Kills, Chapter 1 "WhyDoes Power Kill?" http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/PK.CHAP13.HTM Some arguments about what is wrongwith authoritarianism 12. Proventing Conflict Conventional ways of dealing with conflictdon’t always work very well (just look at the headlines!), andmore and more scholars have begun to ask why this is so. In this andthe next lecture we will consider a selection of these newerapproaches. We will see that they are more comprehensive in theirconception of conflict and more far-reaching in the measures theyadvocate to cope with it. This newer work has a tendency to challengethe status quo, in more ways than one, rather than try to restore if. In this lecture we will consider an approachpioneered by John Burton (among others) known as human needstheory. Human needs theory elaborates an alternate paradigm forunderstanding conflict, which starts from the real basics: humannature itself. One of its unique characteristics is an emphasis onproventing (not a misprint) conflict: seeking to establish socialconditions in which conflict would not have emerged in the firstplace. Reading John Burton, "Conflict Resolution: TowardsProblem Solving", http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/burton.html A short introduction to Burton's work John Burton, "Conflict Resolution: TheHuman Dimension", International Journal of Peace Studies,Vol. 3, No. 1, Jan. 1998 (photocopy) Another short piece which shows whyhis work is important John Burton, Conflict: Resolution andProvention, selections (photocopy) Some of the conceptual foundation ofBurton's analysis Charles Lerche, "Truth Commissions andNational Reconciliation: Some Reflections on Theory and Practice"Peace and Conflict Studies, Vol. 6 No.2, December 1999(forthcoming) (photocopy or email circulation) An effort to apply a human needsperpspective to a contemporary issue 13. Transforming Conflict The particular problems of war-torn societieshave also stimulated new approaches to conflict analysis andresolution. These countries have no status quo to return to, and inthe wake of conflict have had to face the task of building somethingcompletely new. Scholars such as Johan Galtung, and others, arguethat it is the participation of former enemies in re-building thatcan truly change the pattern of their relationship. Other scholars and practitioners have promotedthe need for reconciliation. Reconciliation as a techniquewhich goes beyond settling a conflict’s material stakes torestoring social relations and healing hearts and minds, has receivedincreasing attention in recent years, largely because of the highprofile Truth Commissions in places like Chile, Argentina, Brazil, ElSalvador, Haiti and, most prominently, South Africa. Reading Kevin P. Clements, "Peace Building andConflict Transformation"http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/clements.htm An overview of transforming conflict. Joseph Montville, The Political Meaning ofTraumatic Loss, http://www.crosslink.net/~wfwp/montville.htm A brief introduction to the concept ofreconciliation. Johan Galtung, "After Violence: 3R,Reconstruction, Reconciliation, Resolution: Coping with Visible andInvisible Effects of War and Violence"http://www.transcend.org/TRRECBAS.HTM This is a very good discussion of theidea of post-conflict peace building. It is rather long, so youshould skim it for the "big picture." Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 5"Preventing Deadly Conflict: The Role of States, Leaders, andCivil Society" 14. (Preventing) The Conflicts ofthe 21st Century "The future ain’t what it used tobe!" With the end of the Cold War, the future seems to be moreopen, which means we are obliged to think about it. Various aspectsof international conflict have changed over time, and they may wellcontinue to do so. However, predicting the future is always achallenge and in a period of rapid change, even the relatively nearfuture may seem impossible to anticipate. In this lecture we assess what we can and can’tsay about the future pattern of international conflict. However, wewon’t stop there. We will also go on to consider what can bedone to moderate, reduce and even eliminate some of the types ofconflict that can be anticipated. This is not necessarily a utopianexercise, since more than one genre of conflict can be seen as apotential threat to survival. Reading Charles Lerche, "The Conflicts ofGlobalization",http://colerche.virtualave.net/writings/ConGlob.htm An overview of how globalization iscausing tensions which lead to conflict, and some suggestions aboutnew perspectives for dealing with them Paul Smoker and Linda Groff, "CreatingGlobal-Local Cultures of Peace",http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/smoker.htm Various approaches to building a"culture of peace" Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 7"Toward a Culture of Prevention"
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