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University of Kent at
Canterbury October 1999 International Conflict Analysis Dr. Charles O. Lerche Office Hours (36 Blvd. De Triomphe, ground floor, 1st office on left): Tuesday 15:00 16:15, Wednesdays 16:30 17:45, Thursdays 15:00 16:15 tel/fax: 087 226315, email: colerche@vub.ac.be,
homepage: http://members.nbci.com/colerche
Introduction This course focuses on conflict, and specifically international conflict. To both specialists and lay persons conflict is central to international relations. One well-known scholar (K.J. Holsti) has even argued that the discipline of international relations arose specifically in response to the problem of war. The twentieth century has witnessed violent international conflict of unprecedented scope, intensity and variety and we are all well aware today of such issues as ethnic conflicts, trade wars, arms races, etc More subtly, preparation for and protection from violent conflict has had a broad impact on the institutions and quality of life in many societies, influencing the development of economies, cultures and political institutions. There are a great many ideas about war and conflict, and many widely held ideas are wrong or, at best partially true. For instance, conflict is not always bad, and war is avoided by most states most of the time. Hence, there is a real need for conceptual clarification in this subject area. Furthermore, despite centuries of informed speculation and decades of rigorous empirical research, a comprehensive understanding of the "causes of war" eludes us. Given the destructiveness of modern weapons and the capacity acquired in the 20th century to annihilate much of life on earth, this matter has become increasingly urgent. Research on conflict and war has nonetheless produced much new and relevant information, has clarified how diverse the phenomena under investigation are and has generated many questions for further study. Thus, the analysis of international conflict is an ongoing enterprise with direct relevance to human survival. Though beginning students will encounter some abstractions and some numbers, they should never forget they are dealing with something that matters in the "here and now". They will also discover that even if the "big" questions are not yet resolved, things are known about conflict which could, if systematically applied, make a difference in the quality of international life: for instance, repressing unhappy ethnic separatists won’t work unless you have massive coercive capabilities. To acquire a balanced perspective on these
varied phenomenon one has to consider a number of perspectives.
Students should, therefore, be exposed to theories and approaches
derived from a number of disciplines, freely cross the
normative/empirical divide, have an opportunity to ponder the
perennial ethical questions about war and reflect on the unique
insights of a Feminist analysis of international conflict. A study of
theory should, however, be complemented by a study of "practice".
One needs to look at a variety of cases both to gain an understanding
of conflicts as historical events and to assess the utility and
validity of conceptual frameworks. Finally, the analysis of
international conflict should be future oriented we can’t
prevent the wars of the past, but we might be able to stop or
moderate those which have yet to occur. Overview 1. Introduction to Conflict: Some definitions Approaches to the Study of Conflict 2. Conflict and International Relations: Types of International Conflict; Role of War in International Politics 3. Theories of International Conflict (I): The evolution of thought about international conflict and war 4. Theories of International Conflict (II): Macrocosmic Theories of War; Economic Theories; The Scientific Study of International Conflict 5. Understanding Communal/Identity Conflicts 6. War as a Moral Problem 7. Alternative Discourses of International Conflict: Feminism; Post-Modernism 8. A Few (More) Case Studies of War 9. Introduction to Conflict Resolution, Traditional Approaches to Conflict Management and Resolution (I) 10. Traditional Approaches to Conflict Management and Resolution (II) 11.The Democratic Peace 12. Proventing Conflict: John Burton and Human Needs Theory 13. Transforming Conflict: Reconciliation and Reconstruction 14. (Preventing) The Conflicts of the 21st
Century Aims and Objectives To analyze means, among other things to "examine minutely the constitution of" and "to ascertain the elements of". This course is designed to provide students with the opportunity to examine international conflict(s) in some detail (if not minutely) and to introduce them to many (if not all) of its elements. Specifically, by the end of the course, it is expected the student will: (1) understand conflict as a general social phenomenon and process, and its role in international politics; (2) have a sense of the variety and salience of the major types of international conflict; (3) have been introduced to the main scholarly approaches to the analysis of international conflict; (4) be aware of the various techniques of conflict management and resolution in international relations; (5) have become familiar with a variety of
sources of information about international conflict and conflict
resolution, including on-line sources. Teaching Method Like other courses in the Kent MA program, this course is structured around a lecture and seminar format. There will be one hour of lecture and one hour of seminar each week. Given the wide variety of material covered in the course, the lecture will serve to provide an overview of a topic, outlining its various dimensions and highlighting important points in the reading. The instructor’s approach to the lecture will be semi-formal: i.e. each week’s topic(s) will be covered, but it may well be possible to incorporate some student input (questions, answers, comments) along the way. The seminars are intended to be fully
interactive. Ideally, they could be successful even if the instructor
were not present (though he plans to be!). Seminars will involve both
open questions and discussion of subjects related to the week’s
topic(s), and some structured learning tasks. Group learning can be
one of the most stimulating aspects of higher education, but it is
also one of the most demanding for students. In an interactive group
there is really no place to hide if you are not prepared. In other
words the success of group learning of any kind falls as much on the
shoulders of the students as it does the instructor. So, students
should decide before the first class to assume the following
responsibilities: (1) to be up to date on reading and to reflect on
what they have read; (2) to be ready to contribute to whatever group
learning activity is scheduled; (3) to observe courtesy and be
patient in their interaction with each other this is not always easy
in heated discussions of such things as violence, death or male
chauvinism! Assessment The main written requirement for this course is one essay of (approximately) 2,000 words which should conform in style and format to the guidelines provided by the Brussels School for the MA program. The essay will be due the evening of the last class meeting. In a course on "International Conflict Analysis" it would seem logical that students should have the opportunity to analyze at least one international conflict. Also, since the course covers a variety of theories and approaches to conflict and conflict resolution, the essay should have a theoretical/conceptual component. Therefore, in preparing the essay each student should: (1) Focus on some aspect of an international conflict, or an intra-state conflict with international implications Besides the "high-profile" inter-state conflicts (Note: remember we are not just talking about wars here!) most of the communal conflicts of recent years also fall into this category; i.e. internal conflicts which have generated "threats to international peace and security" as defined in the United Nations Charter, or which have created problems for the foreign policies of major states. In the case of an internal conflict you may wish to highlight how it became "internationalized". Here is a representative, but by no means comprehensive list of places with such conflicts: EUROPE: Albania, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Croatia & Serbia, Georgia, Russia, Chechnya, United Kingdom (Northern Ireland), Kosovo, etc MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Sudan, Turkey, Yemen AFRICA: Angola, Burundi, Liberia, Rwanda, Congo, Sierra Leone, Sudan, South Africa (among others) ASIA: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, India, Indonesia, East Timor, Korea, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan THE AMERICAS: Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti, Mexico (Chiapas), Nicaragua, Peru (inter alia) (2) Select a theoretical perspective or perspectives to use in analyzing and explaining the conflict One strategy might be to contrast explanations from diverse perspectives such as Realist, Marxist or Human Needs theories. You should make a case for the relevance and utility of the approach chosen, on either epistemological, ethical or other grounds i.e. why use Realism rather than Marxism or Human Needs theory. (3) Identify all relevant parties to the conflict These would include (inter alia): the direct participants, allies, international organizations, civil society organizations, etc Relevant individuals, such as leaders, should also be included. (4) Either: (a) For ongoing conflicts, trace the main events in the history of the conflict, summarize the causes of the conflict and the main areas of disagreement among the parties, and present a plausible scenario through which the conflict could be resolved involving various tools of conflict management and resolution: i.e. track one/track two diplomacy, mediation, arbitration, democratization, land exchange, cease fire, international conferences, etc (b) For "resolved" or "nearly-resolved" conflicts, summarize the main events in the history of the conflict, explain what moved it towards resolution, analyze what worked and didn’t work during resolution, explain what remains to be done and make a case for the most effective approaches to use to go further. If, however, students would rather write on something other than the above, but relevant to the main concerns of the course, they should discuss the matter with the instructor. All essay topics should be submitted in writing
with a bibliography of at least five sources (books, articles, etc )
by the fourth class meeting. Reading This is a subject area in which there is an enormous body of literature, and several extensive bibliographies can be made available to students. However, for the purposes of the course two monographs and a Carnegie Foundation Report have been selected as textbooks. (1) Seyom Brown, The Causes and Prevention of War 2nd ed. This is a concise overview of many of the most important dimensions of war in international relations. It seeks to answer the question: "How can the role of large-scale violence in human society be reduced?" The second edition focuses particularly on post-Cold War international conditions. It is relatively easy reading and is not too expensive. (2) John Stoessinger, Why Nations go to War 7th ed. This book provides a variety of case studies of international conflict, in a very limited amount of space. The author presents the salient facts of several major conflicts of the 20th century, and assesses them using a set of premises about the causes of war. You are not obliged to accept his thesis, but it should make for some interesting discussions. NOTE: Though Stoessinger is assigned for Topic 8, students are advised to begin reading the book immediately (it’s good background for several of the topics). (3) Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict http://www.ccpdc.org/frpub.htm This is the final report of a high profile Carnegie Foundation commission. The report is more pragmatic and policy-oriented than theoretical a very useful counterweight to some of the other reading! The report’s chapters don’t fit neatly into the course topic headings, but they are all relevant. Though it might take some time, students are advised to download the whole report at once, or at least ASAP. Students are also advised to download the Microsoft Word versions of the chapters since they have all the figures listed in the contents. The three texts will be supplemented in the required reading by other articles, chapters and material from the Internet. The texts and additional articles in hard copy will be available at the BSIS office, and URLs will be furnished for Internet material. Students are, however, encouraged to purchase the two textbooks. The instructor will also circulate material to students by email, including news stories, web sites, working papers, etc This is to be considered as optional reading, but will usually be worth at least a look. Important: Students are not obliged to accept any of the views in the readings at face value. Rather they are encouraged to think critically and to submit any text to careful scrutiny. "Books are not made to be believed, but to be subjected to inquiry. When we consider a book, we mustn't ask ourselves what it says but what it means..." (from The Name of the Rose by Umberto Eco) A few (more) quotes to stimulate your thought: " all I ask is that, in the midst of a murderous world, we agree to reflect on murder and to make a choice." Albert Camus "As long as there are sovereign nations
possessing great power, war is inevitable. There Albert Einstein "I have believed that the only way peace can be achieved is through world government" Jawaharal Nehru "War is stupid and people are stupid." Boy George and Culture Club "War! What is it good for! Absolutely nothing!" Bruce Springsteen Topics 1. Introduction to Conflict The first week’s lecture introduces conflict as a subject area in international relations. Students will find out that the terminology of international relations is quite "flexible", approaching in some cases the ideal of Lewis Carroll’s Humpty Dumpty where "A word means anything I say it does!". To get started, therefore, it is essential to define some terms, and we will initially work out meanings for conflict, international conflict, war, ethnic conflict, violence and peace (others may be added to the list). Having established a starting point we will briefly examine conflict as a social phenomenon. This is important background for our focus on international conflict during the rest of the term.. Another discovery awaiting the beginning student is the degree to which international relations has borrowed from other fields, and here we get some idea of how conflict is understood in psychology, sociology, anthropology, economics, political science and religion. Reading Brown, Chapter 1 "Why People Fight", and Chapter 2 "Violence and Governance" Robert A. LeVine, "Anthropology and the Study of Conflict" from Richard A. Falk and Samuel S. Kim (ed.s), The War System (photocopy) An overview of this discipline’s orientation to the subject Lewis A. Coser, "Some Social Functions of Violence", from Falk and Kim (photocopy) A "classic" sociological analysis Samuel S. Kim, "The Lorenzian Theory of Aggression and Peace Research: A Critique", from Falk and Kim (photocopy) A summary and critique of one of the best known "theories" of aggression Mary E. Clark, "Aggressivity and Violence: An Alternative Theory of Human Nature", Peace and Conflict Studies, Volume 5 Number 1, June 1998 , http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/clark.htm Another look at aggression as a cause of violence 2. Conflict and International Relations Having now some idea of what conflict is or at least what social scientists say it is we move on to situating it in the context of international relations. This week’s lecture will try to answer a number of questions: Why is international relations characterized by conflict? (just the basics) What functions does conflict have in the process of world politics? What types of conflicts are there in world politics? In seeking answers to these questions, it is important (once again) to bear in mind the distinction between conflict and violent conflict, or between war and other types of conflict. It may well be that some forms of conflict are, on balance, functional and some dysfunctional (or potentially so) for the states system. Reading Brown, Chapter 3 "War and Reasons of State" Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society, Chapter 8 "War and International Order" (photocopy) One of the best known assessments of the place of war in international "society" Evan Luard, International Society, Chapter 9 "Conflict" (photocopy) A summary of this author’s extensive work on the subject Daniel S. Papp, Contemporary International Relations 3rd ed, Chapter 12 "War, Peace, and Violence", pp. 565 574 "Typologies of International Conflict" (photocopy) One typology of conflicts Abdu’l-Aziz Said, Charles O. Lerche Jr., Charles O. Lerche III, Concepts of International Politics in Global Perspective 4th ed., Chapter 7 "Conflict and Conflict Resolution", pp. 119 126 "The Nature of Conflict" (photocopy) Another typology Johan Galtung, The True Worlds, Chapter 5 "The War System", pp. 179 -- 186 "On the Use of Direct Violence" (photocopy) A classic bit of "Galtungian reasoning" brief, but requires your full attention 3. Theories of International Conflict (I) Now we are ready to plunge into the many ways international conflict has been analyzed. This is too big a topic to cover in one lecture, so the subject has been divided into two. The first lecture we will look at what thinkers down through the ages have said about this question. This is important since contemporary thinking on international conflict, particularly in the West, is influenced more than is generally acknowledged by "giants" of Western thought such as St. Augustine or Friedrich Hegel. In trying to get some historic perspective on the subject it is also important to understand the impact of Christianity on Western thinking on war and peace. Therefore, we will introduce the "just war" tradition at this point, and return to consider its contemporary relevance later. We will also discuss the emergence and juxtaposition of "pacifist" and "bellicist" thinking about international conflict. Reading Jean Bethke Elshtain, Women and War, Chapter 2 "The Discourse of War and Politics: From the Greeks to Today" and Chapter 4 "The Attempt to Disarm Civic Virtue", pp. 121 140. (photocopy) An overview which puts women (back) into the picture F.H. Hinsley, Power and the Pursuit of Peace: Theory and Practice in the History of Relations between States, Chapter 1 "To the End of the Seventeenth Century" and Chapter 6 "The First Half of the Nineteenth Century" . (photocopy) Two selections form a classic work which highlights the role of international organization in thought about war and peace. 4. Theories of International Conflict (II) In the 20th century scholars became concerned with explaining war itself, as opposed to studying individual wars. In this lecture will overview the most prominent of these "macrocosmic" approaches that highlight collective characteristics of societies and the international system. We will also consider specific aspects of international conflict such as international crises, balance of power dynamics and the role of special characteristics of deterrence systems. In passing, selected quantitative studies of international conflict processes will be introduced. We will also cover economic, or what are also called socio-economic, explanations of international conflict. Though the extreme left is now marginal to politics, it would be a mistake to underestimate the power of economic explanations of conflict, particularly in societies in transition. One can, for instance, construct a plausible economic explanation for each of the conflicts of the post-Cold War era (including Kosovo ever hear of the oil in the Caucasus?). Whether economic factors are the cause, or just one contributing cause is the real question. Reading Brown, Chapter 4 "Structural Factors," Chapter 5 "Coercive Diplomacy," and Chapter 6 "Military Arsenals and Balances" Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Problems of Our Time 2nd ed., Chapter 13 "Deterrence" and Chapter 15 "Crisis Management" (photocopy) Good overviews of these topics using cases from diplomatic history "The Economic Foundations of Wars: A Soviet View" from Falk and Kim (photocopy) A brief statement of the underlying economic dynamics of international conflict from a Marxist/Leninist point of view Stuart A. Bremer, "National Capabilities and War Proneness" in J. David Singer (ed.), The Correlates of War: II, Testing Some Realpolitik Models (photocopy) A reasonably readable (really!) early quantitative study, which is indicative of the approach of the Correlates of War project to the analysis of international conflict 5. Understanding Communal/Identity Conflicts Since the end of the Cold War conflict involving ethnic, religious and other sub-national groups has received increasing attention in the media. Some have argued that it is now the principle form of conflict in the world, and that such conflicts are the most likely causes of any further international wars. This is a very widespread phenomena, and has come to occupy both scholars and practitioners of international relations. There has been a growing disenchantment from "below" with the institution of the nation-state, which has fostered a renewed emphasis on ethnic and cultural identity and precipitated many explosive confrontations. These developments require new explanations of the interactions between nations and nations, nations and states, and states and states in which ethnic nations play key roles. We will look at some conceptual frameworks and consider a few case studies. Reading Ralph R. Premdas, "Public Policy and Ethnic Conflict", http://www.unesco.org/most/premdas.htm A very good introduction to many of the key issues Tarja Väyrynen, "Securitised Ethnic Identities and Communal Conflicts", http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/vayryn.html A slightly more abstract and postmodern "take" on the subject Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 2 "When Prevention Fails" Patrick Costello, "Historical Background", Accord: An International Review of Peace Initiatives: Negotiating Rights: The Guatemalan Peace Process. http://www.c-r.org/acc_guat/background.htm Background to the Guatemalan case (have a look at other articles in this number of the journal and other numbers available on the site) Elizabeth Nissan, "Historical Context", Accord: An International Review of Peace Initiatives: http://www.c-r.org/acc_sri/background.htm Background to Sri Lankan case. 6. War as a Moral Problem Can modern war be just? Is this even a relevant question? Does morality of any kind apply to international conflict? What sort of norms, if any, can or should be made effective in an anarchical states system? These are the types of questions we will consider in this lecture. We have already looked at some earlier efforts to formulate answers to them. However, times change, and thinking about the content of norms relevant to international conflict also changes. Specifically, we will examine the "just war" doctrine’s utility in a world of nuclear weapons, terrorism and ethnic conflict. Is St. Augustine’s reasoning about war still helpful, or does our "globalized" world require new approaches to the perennial questions of the morality of violence and conflict within and among states? In dealing with these issues we will consider the moral dimensions of some conflict case studies. Reading James Turner Johnson, Can Modern War be Just, Chapter 1 "The Utility of Just War Categories for Moral Analysis of Contemporary War" (photocopy) An assessment of the relevance of the various aspects of the "just war" tradition to contemporary conflicts Michael Walzer, "The Theory of Aggression" in Steven Luper-Foy (ed.) Problems of International Justice Chapter 9. (photocopy) An example of ethical reasoning about a fundamental issue in international conflict Robert L. Holmes, On War and Morality, Chapter Six "The Killing of Innocent Persons in Wartime" (photocopy) Another basic moral issue related to violent conflict 7. Alternative Discourses of International Conflict In this lecture we venture out into the teeming currents of "post-positivism". We will be obliged to briefly discuss the background and basics of "post" approaches to international relations, and then move on to see what scholars of this persuasion have contributed to the understanding of war and conflict The debate between positivists and post-positivists has resulted in other "voices" being more often "heard" in the study of international relations, and prominent among these is the voice of feminist scholars. An increasing body of feminist writing challenges mainstream thinkers to appreciate the extent to which the conventional practice and scholarship of international relations highlight traditionally male conceptions and priorities, ignore the main concerns of women and contribute to their oppression. We will see that international conflict particularly lends itself to this kind of analysis. Reading Michael J. Shapiro, "Textualizing Global Politics" from James Der Derian and Michael J. Shapiro, International/Intertextual Relations: Postmodern Readings of World Politics . (photocopy) A short introduction to the postmodern "project" in international relations Timothy W. Luke, " ‘What’s Wrong with Deterrence?’: A Semiotic Interpretation of National Security Policy" in Der Derian and Shapiro (photocopy) A semiotic (what?) analysis of aspects of deterrence. Jean Bethke Elshtain, Women and War, Chaper 5 "Women: The Ferocious Few/The Noncombatant Many" (photocopy) An effort to make us reconsider where we think women fit into the war "text." 8. A Few (More) Case Studies of War This week we will look more closely at some of the major international conflicts of the 20th century. Since these events have been subject of hundreds (if not thousands) of studies, we will only focus on a few of their more challenging and, hopefully, interesting aspects. We will also consider John Stoessinger’s approach to "Why Nations go to War", and evaluate it in comparison with the other theories and explanations considered so far in the course. Though the instructor reserves the right to modify the "menu", we will certainly have a look at World War I, since there is still a fair amount of controversy in the literature about why it happened at all. World War II poses another set of questions, as does the War in Vietnam. Also, like Stoessinger, we will not limit ourselves to Great Power conflicts, but have a look at wars that broke out between states of the Global South as well. To bring this first part of the course to a close, we will consider how international conflict has changed (if at all) over the course of the last 100 years. Reading Stoessinger, entire book 9. Introduction to Conflict Resolution, Traditional Approaches to Conflict Resolution and Management (I) We’ve not finished with conflict, but we are now going to add another dimension -- really several dimensions to our subject. We are going to look at what can be done about conflict: a complete field of study in itself. Though it is convenient to lump all of this under the heading "conflict resolution" this is an extreme oversimplification. So, we will once again start with some definitions: conflict resolution, conflict management, conflict prevention, conflict termination, peace keeping, peace making, peace building. This won’t be the end of definitions, but it will be enough to get started. Then we will begin considering those "pacific" procedures for dealing with conflict, several of which involve third parties: negotiation, mediation, arbitration, adjudication. In passing we will examine some of what has been discovered about negotiation and diplomacy in general in conflict situations, including the complementary roles of what is now known as "track one" and "track two" diplomacy. Reading Dennis J.D. Sandole, "A Comprehensive Mapping of Conflict and Conflict Resolution: A Three Pillar Approach", http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/sandole.htm An overview of conflict and conflict resolution (quite a good model and summary) R.J. Rummel, "Principles of Conflict Resolution", from Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5, The Just Peace http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/TJP.CHAP10.HTM A "checklist" of elements of conflict resolution Brown, Chapters 7, 8 & 9 start reading Brown doesn’t follow the same order of topics we will, but most of the topics for this week and next are at least mentioned in these chapters Almost any textbook on international law will
have a chapter or section on the peaceful settlement of disputes, and
you are requested to find one and read it. Three examples, among many
would be: Michael Akehurst, A Modern Introduction to International
Law (almost any edition); Gerhard von Glahn, Law Among
Nations; and Henkin, Pugh, Schachter and Smit, International
Law: Cases and Materials. 10. Traditional Approaches to Conflict Resolution & Management (II) Continuing with our review of the traditional approaches to dealing with conflict, we will consider the role of international law, collective security, peacekeeping, disarmament and arms control. These are all big subjects and our brief discussion of each will focus on two questions: 1. What are the basic aspects of each procedure/practice? 2. What are its strengths and weaknesses as an approach to conflict resolution? Students may be surprised to learn that each of the methods considered has distinct advantages and disadvantages in the current international context. None seems to offer a comprehensive solution, and all could be improved and refined. Basic to this entire discussion, of course, is the extent to which it is reasonable or relevant to expect that conflict resolution at the international level could achieve the level (at times) realized in advanced democratic states. Reading Brown, Chapters 7, 8 & 9 finish reading Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 3
"Operational Prevention", Chapter 4 "Structural
Prevention" and Chapter 6 "Preventing Deadly Conflict: The
Responsibility of the United Nations and Regional Arrangements"
11.The Democratic Peace At the end of the 18th century Immanuel Kant argued that countries with democratic, or open, political systems would be more peaceful than those with authoritarian, or closed, political systems. This notion, which raises the fundamental issue of the relationship between internal political conditions and external conflict behavior has stimulated much research. However, it was never proven to be unambiguously true. What has been demonstrated is that democratic states don’t tend to go to war with each other (well not too often so far). With the end of the Cold War and the acceleration of that process of political change known as democratization, the modern version of Kant’s thesis seemed to be in for a real world test. The modal (i.e. most frequently occurring ) type of national political system is now some form of democracy. Scholars have, therefore, been debating the plausibility of the "democratic peace" thesis, and we will review the current "state of the art." Reading Spencer R. Weart , "Investigating the Puzzle of Democratic Peace" http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/WEART.CHAP.HTM A very interesting review of historical evidence to support the democratic peace hypothesis R.J. Rummel, "The Democratic Peace: A New Idea?" http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/POLSYS.ART.HTM One small sample from this remarkable web site. Students should have a look around (but try not to get lost!) R.J. Rummel, Power Kills, Chapter 1 "Why Does Power Kill?" http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/PK.CHAP13.HTM Some arguments about what is wrong with authoritarianism 12. Proventing Conflict Conventional ways of dealing with conflict don’t always work very well (just look at the headlines!), and more and more scholars have begun to ask why this is so. In this and the next lecture we will consider a selection of these newer approaches. We will see that they are more comprehensive in their conception of conflict and more far-reaching in the measures they advocate to cope with it. This newer work has a tendency to challenge the status quo, in more ways than one, rather than try to restore if. In this lecture we will consider an approach pioneered by John Burton (among others) known as human needs theory. Human needs theory elaborates an alternate paradigm for understanding conflict, which starts from the real basics: human nature itself. One of its unique characteristics is an emphasis on proventing (not a misprint) conflict: seeking to establish social conditions in which conflict would not have emerged in the first place. Reading John Burton, "Conflict Resolution: Towards Problem Solving", http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/burton.html A short introduction to Burton's work John Burton, "Conflict Resolution: The Human Dimension", International Journal of Peace Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1, Jan. 1998 (photocopy) Another short piece which shows why his work is important John Burton, Conflict: Resolution and Provention, selections (photocopy) Some of the conceptual foundation of Burton's analysis Charles Lerche, "Truth Commissions and National Reconciliation: Some Reflections on Theory and Practice" Peace and Conflict Studies, Vol. 6 No.2, December 1999 (forthcoming) (photocopy or email circulation) An effort to apply a human needs perpspective to a contemporary issue 13. Transforming Conflict The particular problems of war-torn societies have also stimulated new approaches to conflict analysis and resolution. These countries have no status quo to return to, and in the wake of conflict have had to face the task of building something completely new. Scholars such as Johan Galtung, and others, argue that it is the participation of former enemies in re-building that can truly change the pattern of their relationship. Other scholars and practitioners have promoted the need for reconciliation. Reconciliation as a technique which goes beyond settling a conflict’s material stakes to restoring social relations and healing hearts and minds, has received increasing attention in recent years, largely because of the high profile Truth Commissions in places like Chile, Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, Haiti and, most prominently, South Africa. Reading Kevin P. Clements, "Peace Building and Conflict Transformation" http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/clements.htm An overview of transforming conflict. Joseph Montville, The Political Meaning of Traumatic Loss, http://www.crosslink.net/~wfwp/montville.htm A brief introduction to the concept of reconciliation. Johan Galtung, "After Violence: 3R, Reconstruction, Reconciliation, Resolution: Coping with Visible and Invisible Effects of War and Violence" http://www.transcend.org/TRRECBAS.HTM This is a very good discussion of the idea of post-conflict peace building. It is rather long, so you should skim it for the "big picture." Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 5
"Preventing Deadly Conflict: The Role of States, Leaders, and
Civil Society" 14. (Preventing) The Conflicts of the 21st Century "The future ain’t what it used to be!" With the end of the Cold War, the future seems to be more open, which means we are obliged to think about it. Various aspects of international conflict have changed over time, and they may well continue to do so. However, predicting the future is always a challenge and in a period of rapid change, even the relatively near future may seem impossible to anticipate. In this lecture we assess what we can and can’t say about the future pattern of international conflict. However, we won’t stop there. We will also go on to consider what can be done to moderate, reduce and even eliminate some of the types of conflict that can be anticipated. This is not necessarily a utopian exercise, since more than one genre of conflict can be seen as a potential threat to survival. Reading Charles Lerche, "The Conflicts of Globalization", http://colerche.virtualave.net/writings/ConGlob.htm An overview of how globalization is causing tensions which lead to conflict, and some suggestions about new perspectives for dealing with them Paul Smoker and Linda Groff, "Creating Global-Local Cultures of Peace", http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/smoker.htm Various approaches to building a "culture of peace" Preventing Violent Conflict, Chapter 7 "Toward a Culture of Prevention"
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